CoinTalk

In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, traders are always searching for a crystal ball. While no tool can predict the future with 100% accuracy, one economic model has captured the imagination of the Bitcoin community more than any other: the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model.

Created by the pseudonymous analyst PlanB, this model attempts to calculate the "fair value" of Bitcoin based on its scarcity. It provides the mathematical backbone for the argument that Bitcoin is "Digital Gold." But how does it work, and can it really predict the next bull run?

The Math: Stock vs. Flow

The model is borrowed from the world of commodities, specifically gold and silver. It measures the relationship between two numbers:

1. Stock: The total existing supply of an asset that has already been mined.
2. Flow: The amount of new supply entering the market each year (production).

The Formula: Stock / Flow = S2F Ratio.

The higher the ratio, the scarcer the asset is, and theoretically, the more valuable it becomes.

• Gold has the highest S2F ratio of any commodity. It would take decades of mining at current rates to double the existing stock. This makes it a store of value.
• Silver has a lower S2F ratio, making it less valuable and more industrial.
• Fiat Currency has a theoretically infinite flow (central banks can print money), giving it a terrible S2F ratio.

The Bitcoin Connection: The Halving

PlanB applied this logic to Bitcoin because BTC is the first digital object with unforgeable scarcity. We know exactly how many Bitcoins exist (Stock) and exactly how many are created every 10 minutes (Flow).

The magic of the model lies in the Halving. Every four years, the reward for mining a Bitcoin block is cut in half.

• The Impact: When a halving occurs, the "Flow" drops by 50%.
• The Result: The S2F ratio doubles instantly.

According to the model, every time a halving event happens, Bitcoin becomes twice as scarce as it was before. Historically, these events have triggered massive supply shocks that sent the price parabolic 12–18 months later. The model predicts that as Bitcoin becomes harder to produce than gold, its market cap should eventually rival or exceed gold's market cap.

Criticism: The Flaw in the Formula

While the S2F model was terrifyingly accurate for Bitcoin's first decade, it is not without critics. The primary argument against it is that Supply is only half the equation.

Economics 101 teaches us that price is determined by Supply and Demand.

• The Blind Spot: The S2F model assumes demand will remain constant or grow. However, if demand vanishes (due to a ban or a better technology replacing Bitcoin), the price will crash regardless of how scarce the asset is. Scarcity alone does not create value; I can create a unique drawing, and it is scarce, but that doesn't make it valuable if nobody wants it.

Furthermore, the model has deviated in recent years, failing to predict the exact tops of the 2021 cycle, leading many to treat it as a broad valuation tool rather than a precise price predictor.

Conclusion

The Stock-to-Flow model remains one of the most compelling arguments for Bitcoin's long-term value proposition. It mathematically proves why Bitcoin is a superior store of value to fiat currency. However, investors should treat it as a compass, not a GPS. It points North, but it won't show you the roadblocks along the way.

Trump Enters the Arena: A Political-Themed Crypto Game Aims to Shake Up Mobile Gaming

A new contender is preparing to enter the mobile gaming world, and it arrives draped in political spectacle. Trump Billionaires Club, a crypto-infused mobile game licensed under the former president’s name, has announced a target launch on the Apple App Store before the year ends, with a listed expected date of December 30th.

Behind the venture is Bill Zanker, a figure connected to the team that launched the official Trump memecoin and associated NFTs. His company, Freedom 45 Games, is developing the title, which promises to blend casual board game mechanics with the volatile world of cryptocurrency.

The Game: A Digital Empire-Building Experience

A demo video paints a picture of a virtual, stylized New York City, where players roll dice to navigate a familiar-looking game board. The objective centers on earning funds for construction and development, echoing classic property-trading games. However, the integration goes beyond mere theme.

The game’s economy is explicitly tied to cryptocurrency. Players can fund their accounts using cash, various cryptocurrencies, or the project’s native TRUMP Coin. It also incorporates non-fungible tokens (NFTs) in the form of tradable statues and pins for use within the game. An ongoing pre-launch points race offers an airdrop of Trump tokens to the top earner, with points awarded for actions like holding TRUMP Coin and referring new users.

A Disclaimer and a Downturn

Amidst the promotional fanfare, the project’s website carries a significant disclaimer. It clarifies that the game is  not designed, manufactured, or distributed by US President Donald Trump or any of his businesses or affiliates,  and that its collectibles are for  enjoyment only,  not investment.

This cautious language arrives during a turbulent period for the Trump-branded crypto ecosystem. The official Trump memecoin (TRUMP), which skyrocketed to a market value exceeding $14.5 billion upon its January launch, has plummeted more than 92% from its all-time high. It currently trades around $5.89, though it saw a modest 3.4% bump following the game’s announcement.

Blending Politics, Gaming, and Crypto

The launch represents a bold fusion of three highly engaged, and often controversial, digital cultures: political fandom, mobile gaming, and cryptocurrency. It follows a pattern of Trump-adjacent digital merchandise, from NFTs to memecoins, that leverage his powerful brand identity.

Unsurprisingly, such ventures have attracted scrutiny. Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. have previously called for investigations by financial regulators and ethics offices into crypto projects bearing Trump’s name, questioning their potential for investor confusion and market manipulation.

The Verdict Awaits

Whether Trump Billionaires Club will become a gaming phenomenon or a niche curiosity remains to be seen. Its success may hinge on its gameplay depth, its ability to navigate app store policies, and the unpredictable tides of both the crypto market and political sentiment. One thing is certain: its arrival guarantees that the intersection of politics and web3 will only grow louder, more interactive, and more hotly debated.

The App Store countdown is on. The digital dice will soon roll.

In the cryptocurrency industry, we often speak of "Too Big to Fail." We assume that once an exchange reaches a certain size—with billions in reserves and hundreds of security engineers—it becomes invincible.

That illusion shattered in February 2025. The attack on Bybit wasn't just another headline; it was a seismic shift in how we understand security. When $1.5 billion in Ethereum vanished from one of the world's most compliant exchanges, it proved that walls don't matter if the enemy is already inside the gate.

This wasn't a case of a CEO running away with the money or a user losing their password. It was a sophisticated, state-sponsored operation that exposed the most dangerous vulnerability in modern tech: The Supply Chain Attack.

The Invisible Intruder

To understand how this happened, you have to look past the brute force attacks of the past. The hackers—identified by the FBI as the notorious North Korean "Lazarus Group"—didn't try to break Bybit’s encryption directly. That would have been mathematically impossible.

Instead, they targeted a third-party tool: the user interface (UI) of the Safe{Wallet} infrastructure that the exchange used for its cold storage. Imagine you are signing a check. You read the amount: "

1,000,000" the moment you lifted your hand. This is effectively what happened. The hackers injected malicious code into the signing interface.[6][7] When the exchange's security officers approved a routine transaction, their screens showed everything was normal. But the underlying code had swapped the destination address to a wallet controlled by the Lazarus Group.

The Failure of "Multi-Sig"

For years, "Multi-Signature" (Multi-Sig) wallets were considered the gold standard. The logic is sound: a thief can’t steal the funds unless they steal 5 different keys from 5 different people.

The Bybit hack exposed the flaw in this logic. If all 5 key-holders are looking at the same compromised screen, they will all sign the same fraudulent transaction. They aren't verifying the truth; they are verifying a mirage.

This has forced the entire industry to rethink custody. It is no longer enough to just have multiple keys; you need multiple verification paths. You need "air-gapped" hardware that decodes the raw transaction data offline, completely separate from the internet-connected software that might be lying to you.

The Laundering Machine

The aftermath of the hack was a masterclass in money laundering. In the past, hackers would panic and try to dump tokens on centralized exchanges, getting caught immediately.

The Lazarus Group did the opposite. They moved with terrifying patience. They used "Chain Hopping"—moving funds from Ethereum to Bitcoin to Thorchain—and utilized privacy mixers like Tornado Cash to sever the on-chain link. This highlights a grim reality: the blockchain is transparent, but it is not a magical tool for recovery. Once funds enter a mixer, they are effectively gone.

The Solvency Test

Perhaps the most important part of this story is what happened after. In previous cycles (like Mt. Gox or FTX), a hack of this magnitude meant bankruptcy. Users lost everything.

However, the industry has matured. Bybit managed to survive (and reimburse users) because it had a robust balance sheet and crisis management protocols. This reinforces the importance of trading on platforms that are solvent and transparent about their reserves.

When you choose an exchange, you aren't just looking for low fees; you are looking for a balance sheet that can absorb a billion-dollar punch and keep standing.

Conclusion

The Bybit incident taught us that security is not a product you buy; it is a constant war against evolving threats. It proved that even the strongest armor has gaps in the joints.

The Data That Feels Like a Funeral

For years, the story of crypto in America has been written in neon: a raging, emotional drama of FOMO and panic, of to the moon rallies and apocalyptic crashes. It was a market powered by the raw, unfiltered nerve of the retail investor. But a new study from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) paints a radically different picture. The data is stark: the percentage of Americans holding crypto hasn't budged since 2021. The frenzied rush of new buyers has evaporated. Risk appetite is plummeting. The narrative, it seems, has frozen over.

The Hidden Bull Case in the Deep Freeze

But I see this deep freeze not as a death knell, but as the quiet, necessary precondition for a historic thaw. This isn't stagnation; it's sedimentation. The frothy, speculative top layer has blown away. What's left is a hardened, unmoving core of 27% of investors who have not sold. They are the bedrock. The "hot money" that chased Dogecoin and leveraged NFTs is gone. The fearful tourists who bought the top in 2021 have left the building. This isn't a declining market; it's a market that has finally expelled its weakest hands and is now sitting in a state of profound, disciplined equilibrium.

The Real Story: When "Boring" Becomes Powerful

The real story isn't in the stagnant ownership percentage. It's in the chilling of consideration. The slowdown in new entrants isn't a failure of crypto; it's a failure of the old, chaotic, scam-riddled narrative that surrounded it. The conversation has shifted from "get rich quick" to a grinding, macroeconomic debate about interest rates and inflation. Crypto is no longer a speculative side bet; it's now just another asset class waiting for its macro cue. So, is this widespread American investor apathy the final, boring capitulation before crypto becomes just another ticker on a Bloomberg terminal? Or is this the serene, quiet accumulation phase that legends are made of—the moment where the smart money builds its position while everyone else is asleep?

The Silent Majority Speaks: Decoding the Apathy

He's missing the forest for the trees. The hold steady at 27% after all this volatility is a MIRACLE. It means conviction. The weak are gone. This is the strongest the HODLer base has ever been. The next wave won't be driven by FOMO, but by necessity.

This is peak "Wall Street" energy. They've successfully framed crypto as 'risky' to keep retail on the sidelines. The 8% entering the market now aren't gamblers; they're calculators. This is how real, lasting foundations are built—slowly, quietly, and with institutional precision.

The apathy is a direct result of regulatory purgatory. Why would a normie dive in when the message from D.C. is pure hostility? This isn't a natural market cooling. It's a government-induced deep freeze. The trigger for the next boom will be regulatory clarity, not a Fed pivot.

They're confusing 'risk-taking' with 'smart allocation.' Dropping meme stocks doesn't mean you're fearful. It means you're growing up. The capital leaving junk is the capital that will flow into real crypto assets with utility. This is a maturation, not a retreat.

The data on young investors is a ticking time bomb. A third still see crypto as key to their goals. They're not buying now because they're priced out of life. Once student debt relief hits or the job market turns, that pent-up demand will be explosive. This isn't the end of their interest; it's a strategic pause.

This is exactly what happened before every major cycle. Everyone gets bored. The headlines stop. The noise dies down. That's when you accumulate. The FINRA study isn't a bearish report; it's a map to the bottom.

Who cares about the consideration of the masses? The game changed with the ETFs. The flow of funds is now a institutional spreadsheet exercise, invisible to these surveys. Retail sentiment is now a lagging indicator, not a leading one.

He's right about the chill, but wrong about the cause. It's not apathy; it's attention saturation. The public is exhausted by crypto drama. The next phase belongs to the boring, background technology they use without knowing it—the stablecoins, the settlement layers. The 'investment' story is taking a backseat to the 'utility' story. And that’s far more powerful.

As debates over privacy, innovation, and regulatory freedom continue to shape America’s crypto future, one truth remains: your ability to buy, trade, and build wealth in crypto shouldn’t depend on politics.

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Introduction

Automation is the buzzword of the year. But should you trust a human "Master Trader" or an AI algorithm? Both have strengths, and the best choice depends on your personality and goals.

AI Trading Bots: Speed and Logic

Bots are excellent for sideways markets. They never sleep and can execute grid trading strategies to profit from small price fluctuations. However, bots struggle with major news events (like a sudden regulatory ban or a hacked protocol) because they can't "read the room."

Copy Trading: Human Intuition

Copy trading relies on humans who can react to news. If a war breaks out or the Fed cuts rates, a human trader can pause trading or hedge their position immediately.

• Pros: Flexible, adaptive, handles "Black Swan" events better.
• Cons: Humans have emotions; they can have "bad days."

The Hybrid Approach

The smartest investors use both.

1. Use AI Bots for stable, high-cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum to farm consistent yield.

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Conclusion

From Internet Joke to Your Portfolio: The Ultimate Guide to Buying Dogecoin Today

Imagine telling someone in 2013 that a cryptocurrency featuring a smiling Shiba Inu dog would one day be accepted by Fortune 500 companies, sponsored by billionaires, and traded by millions worldwide. Yet here we are—Dogecoin has transformed from a lighthearted internet meme into a serious financial asset that continues to capture the world's imagination.

Whether you're intrigued by its incredible community stories, inspired by its dramatic price history, or simply want to participate in one of cryptocurrency's most fascinating experiments, buying Dogecoin represents a unique entry point into the digital economy.

The Unlikely Story of Dogecoin's Rise to Fame

Let's rewind to December 2013, when software engineers Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer decided to create a cryptocurrency that would be more approachable and fun than Bitcoin. They took the popular  Doge  meme—featuring a confused-looking Shiba Inu surrounded by colorful Comic Sans text—and built a digital currency around it.

What happened next surprised everyone. Within weeks, Dogecoin was processing more daily transactions than Bitcoin. The community that formed around it wasn't just interested in profits; they created a culture of generosity, famously raising $30,000 in DOGE to send Jamaica's bobsled team to the Winter Olympics.

The real watershed moment came years later when tech billionaire Elon Musk began championing the coin. His tweets and public statements, calling himself the Dogefather  and even temporarily changing his Twitter bio to "CEO of Dogecoin," sent prices soaring and cemented DOGE's place in pop culture history.

Why Dogecoin Still Matters  

While thousands of meme coins have come and gone, Dogecoin remains relevant for several compelling reasons:

First-Mover Advantage: As the original meme coin, it enjoys brand recognition that newer competitors can't match. When people think  crypto meme,  they still think Dogecoin first.

Active Development: Contrary to its "joke coin" origins, Dogecoin has a dedicated development team that continues to improve its technology, security, and functionality.

Payment Adoption: Major companies including Newegg, AMC Theatres, and even some Tesla merchandise shops accept Dogecoin as payment, giving it real-world utility.

Community Power: The Dogecoin community remains one of the most active and positive in crypto, with the "Do Only Good Everyday philosophy creating a supportive environment for newcomers.

Your First Dogecoin Purchase: A Visual Walkthrough

Step 1: Choosing Your Trading Platform