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XRP Millionaire Wallets Surge as Market Fear Grows, Signaling Quiet Confidence

While much of the cryptocurrency market continues to wrestle with uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, XRP is quietly flashing a signal that long-term investors are watching closely. New on-chain data suggests that wealthy XRP holders are returning, even as broader market indicators remain stuck in fear territory.

According to fresh insights from blockchain analytics firm Santiment, the number of XRP wallets holding more than one million tokens has been steadily climbing since the beginning of 2026. This development comes at a time when overall crypto sentiment remains weak, making the trend particularly notable.

Wealthy XRP Holders Return Despite Price Stagnation

XRP’s price performance so far this year has been relatively muted. Since the start of 2026, the token has slipped by around 4%, hovering near the $1.87–$1.89 range. Under normal circumstances, declining or stagnant prices tend to push large holders away. However, Santiment’s data suggests the opposite is happening.

The analytics platform revealed that 42 new wallets holding more than one million XRP have reappeared on the ledger since January 1. This marks the first sustained increase in  millionaire  wallets since September, following a sharp decline late last year.

Between October and December, the number of high-value XRP wallets dropped by nearly 800, reflecting a period of distribution and reduced confidence. The recent reversal, however, suggests that deep-pocketed investors may be repositioning for the long term.

Santiment described the trend as an  encouraging sign,  particularly given the broader market environment. At current prices, a wallet holding one million XRP represents an investment of roughly $1.87 million, highlighting the scale of capital flowing back into the network.

Smart Money Accumulation Adds to the Bullish Case

Beyond raw wallet counts, other data points reinforce the idea that sophisticated investors are quietly accumulating XRP. According to figures from on-chain intelligence platform Nansen, so-called  smart money  traders have increased their XRP holdings by more than 11% over the past 30 days.

These traders, often defined by their historical profitability and strategic timing, are closely watched by market participants searching for early signals. Their renewed interest suggests growing confidence that XRP may be undervalued at current levels, despite short-term price stagnation.

Analysts Divided on XRP’s Near-Term Direction

While on-chain data paints a constructive long-term picture, analysts remain split on what XRP might do in the coming weeks.

Crypto trader CW noted on social media that XRP appears close to breaking through a significant selling wall. According to his analysis, buying pressure remains strong, and market structure is beginning to shift in favor of bulls. If resistance is cleared, CW believes XRP could make a move toward the $2.30 level.

Other industry voices are more cautious but still optimistic. Asset manager 21Shares recently pointed to XRP’s historical pattern of prolonged consolidation followed by sharp upward moves. When combined with increasing regulatory clarity and expanding institutional interest, the firm suggested XRP could be positioned for another meaningful price expansion.

Regulatory Narratives Cast a Shadow

Not everyone is convinced that XRP’s upside is guaranteed. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, has warned that XRP’s price action may be becoming overly dependent on narrative rather than fundamentals.

He emphasized that any unexpected developments surrounding the U.S. CLARITY Act voting process could apply short-term pressure to the asset. In such a scenario, sentiment-driven optimism could quickly give way to volatility.

This tension between structural optimism and regulatory uncertainty continues to define XRP’s outlook in early 2026.

A Market Still Dominated by Bitcoin

XRP Warns of a Major Breakdown as Historical Signals Resurface

XRP is once again at a critical crossroads. A combination of onchain data, weakening technical structure, and fresh ETF outflows is flashing a warning signal that traders have seen before — and it did not end well the last time it appeared. According to recent market intelligence, XRP’s current setup closely resembles the conditions that preceded a dramatic 68% price collapse in 2022, raising serious concerns about what may come next.

As XRP struggles to defend key psychological levels, investors are asking a pressing question: will bulls step in this time, or is history about to repeat itself?

A Familiar Onchain Pattern That Traders Fear

Recent data from Glassnode suggests that XRP’s onchain market structure is entering a dangerous phase. The current distribution of holders mirrors a setup observed in early 2022, a period that ultimately led to months of sustained downside.

At the heart of this warning is XRP’s cost-basis behavior. Short-term investors who entered the market within the last week to month are accumulating XRP below the cost basis of mid-term holders who bought between six and twelve months ago. This imbalance creates a fragile environment where newer buyers remain relatively comfortable, while mid-term holders are trapped in losing positions.

Over time, this gap builds psychological pressure. Investors who are underwater become increasingly likely to sell into any price rebound, creating persistent overhead resistance that prevents sustained upside momentum.

Lessons From 2022: Why This Signal Matters

The last time XRP displayed this exact onchain structure was in February 2022, when the token traded near $0.78. What followed was a slow but relentless decline that erased nearly 68% of its value, pushing XRP down to around $0.30 by mid-year.

Market analysts now warn that if XRP fails to reclaim critical support zones, a similar scenario could unfold. While the market environment today is different, investor behavior often repeats under pressure — especially when fear and uncertainty begin to dominate.

If current support levels weaken, projections suggest XRP could slide toward the $1.40 region, with deeper downside possible if selling accelerates.

Why the $2 Level Has Become a Psychological Battlefield

The $2 price level has emerged as one of the most important zones for XRP in recent months. Each attempt to reclaim this level since early 2025 has triggered massive realized losses, often ranging between $500 million and $1.2 billion on a weekly basis. This pattern reveals a clear behavioral trend: many holders are using rallies toward $2 as an opportunity to exit their positions.

As long as XRP remains below this threshold, selling pressure is likely to persist. The longer the price struggles under $2, the more confidence bears gain, and the more hesitant bulls become.

Historical price action reinforces this concern. In previous cycles, XRP repeatedly weakened key support levels through multiple retests before eventually breaking down. Once those levels failed, the decline accelerated rapidly.

Technical Structure Points to Deeper Risk

From a technical perspective, XRP’s recent move below its 50-day simple moving average signals a shift in momentum. This breakdown suggests that bears are regaining control, opening the door for a potential move toward lower support zones around $1.25 or even closer to the 200-week moving average near $1.03.

In 2022, XRP followed a nearly identical trajectory. After losing a long-held support level, price cascaded downward until it found temporary relief near its long-term moving average. Traders now fear that the current structure may be setting up for the same outcome if buyers fail to act decisively.

ETF Outflows Add to the Bearish Narrative

Adding further pressure to XRP’s outlook is the behavior of spot XRP exchange-traded funds. Recently, XRP ETFs recorded their second-ever day of net outflows since launch, with more than $53 million exiting the market in a single session. This marked the largest outflow event so far, surpassing the previous record set earlier in the year.

ETF flows often serve as a proxy for institutional sentiment. When capital begins to leave these products, it suggests that larger players are growing cautious or reducing exposure, which can amplify downside volatility in the broader market.

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